Essays & research

Essays and working notes

Finished essays argue a case with the arithmetic attached. Working notes are earlier: a question being worked out, published before the answer is tidy.

06Published entries
03System topics
01Long-form essay
7 essays
01
New essay · Semiconductors

The Bottleneck Moves

Terafab bets the next constraint on AI is industrial. Global Crossing is the reason that bet can be completely right and still be ruinously early.

August 202611 min
02
New essay · AI markets

Kimi Hit the Limits of Its Compute. The Model May No Longer Be the Moat

Frontier capability is clustering more tightly. If intelligence becomes easier to reproduce, the durable advantage must move outward.

July 20268 min
03
Working note · Power

Why AI Is Reshaping Electrical Infrastructure

Higher density and synchronized loads are changing electrical design from the accelerator to the utility substation.

July 20262 min
04
Working note · Utilities

Understanding Utility Interconnection Queues

The grid's least visible administrative process determines which projects can connect, what they pay, and how long they wait.

July 20262 min
05
Working note · Facilities

Why Mission-Critical Facilities Are Growing So Quickly

The high cost of interruption is reshaping how hospitals, fabs, exchanges, data centers, and other critical facilities are built.

July 20262 min
06
Working note · AI

The Power Problem Behind AI

Compute capacity can be ordered faster than grid capacity can be built. Much of AI infrastructure strategy follows from that gap.

July 20262 min
07
Working note · Semiconductors

How Semiconductors Became Strategic Infrastructure

Semiconductor production now shapes industrial policy, trade, defense, and infrastructure planning.

July 20262 min

Each entry is labeled so you can see how settled the argument is before you spend time on it.